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Global Risks Forecast

Issue 98 | 18 February 2010 – 03 March 2010

Fortnightly analysis and forecasts of emerging trends and issues across the global risks spectrum - including an archive of over 1890 articles.

World map showing event locations and trends
Click to go to article 4 Click to go to article 13 Click to go to article 3 Click to go to article 5 Click to go to article 2 Click to go to article 6 Click to go to article 12 Click to go to article 11 Click to go to article 1

Geopolitics and emerging powers

1
Turkey
Sixty-seven officers arrested in coup probe, raising tensions between AKP and secularist nationalists
Increasing Medium term Operational/strategic
2
Syria
Iran's Ahmadinejad meets Syria's al-Assad in Damascus, confirming the strength of Syrian-Iranian ties
Stable Medium term Strategic
3
Niger
Appointment of post-coup transitional gov't seen as evidence of junta's commitment to democracy
Stable Medium term Operational/strategic

Governance and business environment

4
Colombia
Court bars Uribe from standing for a third term - continuity in most policy areas is nonetheless expected
Increasing Long term Strategic
5
Uganda
President Museveni appoints his son as head of Ugandan Special Forces, positioning him for succession
Increasing Medium term Operational
6
India
Budget criticised for failing to tackle gov't deficit which stands at 6.9% of GDP in 2009/2010
Stable Medium term Strategic

Macroeconomics and development

7
Global
Global fiscal concerns over ageing populations are supported by Maplecroft's Fiscal Risk index 2010
Increasing Long term Strategic

Natural hazards

8
Global
Natural hazards update - China, Costa Rica, Taiwan, Uganda, Ethiopia...
Increasing Short term Operational

Pandemics and public health

9
Global
Avian influenza update - Bhutan, Myanmar, Egypt...
Stable Short term Operational
10
Global
Swine influenza update - Malaysia, China, Georgia, India, Myanmar...
Stable Short term Operational

Resource security

11
Nigeria
Oil firms concerned over gov't plans to introduce new rules providing less favourable business terms
Increasing Medium term Operational/strategic

Science and technology

12
Belgium
New ACTA leak fuels international debate on privacy and internet freedom in anti-piracy law
Stable Medium term Strategic

Terrorism and conflict

13
Sudan
Gov't hands southerners parliamentary seats and announces ceasefire agreement with Darfur rebels
Stable Medium term Operational/strategic
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Political Risk
Atlas 2010

Includes the Terrorism
Risk Index 2010

Maplecroft Climate
Innovation Indexes

Top 300 US stocks Innovation and emissions

Global Risks
Atlas 2010

34 Strategic
Indices and Maps

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Legend

Trend
  • Increasing risk Increasing risk
  • Stable Stable risk
  • Decreasing risk Decreasing risk
Timeframe
  • Short term Short term
  • Medium term Medium term
  • Long term Long term
Impact
  • Operational Operational
  • Strategic Strategic
  • Operational/strategic Operational/strategic
Map key:
Natural hazards Natural hazards
Avian influenza Avian influenza
Swine influenza Swine influenza